But why do we celebrate this sacred day? What are we actually celebrating? You’ve most likely heard the story of St. Patrick, who drove all the snakes out of Ireland. But is that the actual story? What is myth and what is fact when it comes to the tale of St. Patrick’s Day?

Well, stop asking questions because we here at CitySignal are coming at you with answers!

Myth: St. Patrick’s Day celebrates when St. Patrick drove all the snakes out of Ireland.

Fact: The snake thing is just one of many origin stories for the Irish holiday. Other possible origins are that the day commemorates the saint’s death, or the day he brought Christianity to Ireland. These last two scenarios are far more likely considering there have never been records of snakes in Ireland. For this reason, it’s believed that snakes are an allegory for pagans, which is pretty mean considering pagan mythology is actually pretty cool. Paganism and Celtic mythology has even been incorporated back into the holiday via clovers and leprechauns, so it’s not exactly an origin story that sticks.

Myth: St. Patrick brought Christianity to Ireland.

Fact: While he definitely popularized it, Christianty had been present on the island for sometime before the Saint ever arrived there. In fact, some scholars believe that Saint Patrick has been receiving credit for something that Palladius, a Roman Bishop, and his son did. That said, Patrick was very proactive in spreading the religion to all parts of Ireland. However, popularizing and inventing are two very different things.

Myth: Saint Patrick was Irish.

Fact: Remember when I said that Christianity was in Ireland before Patrick was? That’s because Patrick was born on the British Isles, probably when it was ruled by Rome. “So how did Saint Patrick end up in Ireland?” I’m glad you asked! The guy got kidnapped by Irish pirates when he was 16 and they brought him over! Little did they know, they had kidnapped a guy who’s name would be synonymous with drinking, snake removal, and the color green. Speaking of:

Myth: Green has always been the color for St. Patrick’s Day.

Fact: The original St. Patrick’s Day color was blue because that’s what the saint’s followers would wear. It was most likely changed to green in the 1700s when Ireland was vying for independence from England. Green was the color the indie Irish went with and it just stuck. Now Chicago dyes its river green every St. Patrick’s Day because there’s nothing the Irish and Catholic communities love more than bizarre mischaracterizations of their holidays.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day Weekend, Chicago!

Although we didn’t gather, we were able to honor long-standing tradition by dyeing the Chicago River green, thanks to the Chicago Journeymen Plumbers. If you’re heading out today, make sure to mask up and watch your distance. pic.twitter.com/UfU2GI74nC

— Mayor Lori E. Lightfoot (@chicagosmayor) March 13, 2021

 Myth: Most Saint Patrick’s Day Traditions Come from Ireland.

Fact: I know this might shock some people, but it turns out America co-opted a holiday and forced its own traditions onto it without acknowledging the religious or cultural significance of said holiday. Before the good US of A came along, Saint Patrick’s Day was a feasting day for Roman Catholics that was only celebrated in Ireland. When more Irish people started immigrating to America, they brought the holiday with them and began having large festivals and parades to showcase their Irish pride. The shamrocks, wearing green, and the stuff with leprechauns are all traditionally Irish, but they’ve been heavily appropriated by Americans who thought they just looked fun. It’s like when people wear sombreros on Cinco de Mayo. It’s culturally insensitive, but morning talk shows still do it anyway.

Myth: Leprechauns are chill dudes who live under rainbows and give people gold and good luck.

Fact: Leprechauns are fairies, and Irish fairies have a tendency to be mischievous if not downright dangerous. First, and foremost, leprechauns do not live under rainbows and guard pots of gold. They mostly work with shoes and try to avoid humans. That said, if humans do cross paths with one, they better not wrong the leprechauns, because they will ruin your life. They could just prank you silly, or they might steal all your money! Who knows with these little guys?

Myth: Corned Beef and Cabbage is a longstanding tradition.

Fact: This one is actually true…for America. In Ireland, it’s more traditional to eat pork. The American tradition comes from a cool fusion of Irish and Jewish cultures when Irish immigrants started buying meat from Jewish delis. This became a traditional food for Irish communities in the states, which is easily one of the nicest additions the US made to the holiday.

Myth: You have to pinch people who don’t wear green on St. Patrick’s Day.

Fact: No you don’t. You don’t have to pinch anyone ever! The common myth is that the color green makes you invisible to leprechauns, so if you aren’t wearing green, those little devils get you good. But like we said earlier, green wasn’t really a St. Patrick’s Day thing until the 1700s. Maybe blue was supposed to make you invisible? Or maybe this is just a myth that started later in Irish history. Either way, it’s always been the thing I actively dislike about St. Patti’s. Everything else is cool.

Saint Patrick’s Day began its life as a religious festival and has evolved into many forms that are celebrated in countries all over the world. The biggest celebrations still happen in the US and Ireland, but those traditions look very different. We Americans tend to add our own spins to holidays, for better or worse, to make them our own. That said, it’s important to remember that this is a day of pride for Irish communities. So, while fun is absolutely encouraged, so is respect. The mythos of Ireland is not well understood or practiced in many of today’s Saint Patrick’s traditions. However, the themes of celebration and Irish pride are forever present. So do yourselves a favor and learn a bit more about Irish culture! It’s interesting, sad, and inspirational all at the same time. So pour yourself some whiskey and learn something!

The post St. Patrick’s Day: Myth vs Fact appeared first on CitySignal.

Wondering if you should move to the McKibbin Lofts? 

A sordid history of tenants

In 2011, the FBI raided a resident’s loft in search of a hacker believed to be a part of Anonymous. Unfortunately for the innocent current resident at the time, the person of interest that the FBI was tracking down has already moved from the lofts.

In 2015, a fire erupted on the third floor of 255 McKibbin in an artist’s apartment. The resident confirmed it was a guest that had started the fire, leaving an appliance on, which prompted the mattress below it to ignite. It was a small fire and quickly contained. However, the most worrisome piece of this story is told by the resident below the apartment where the incident took place. They reported that there were no alarms, no sounds, no notice at all, not even a concerned neighbor with a warning when the fire was taking place. The only reason they knew something was happening is that the water extinguishing the fire in the apartment above his began to leak through the ceiling into the neighbor’s living room.

In 2016, the city’s Department of Buildings was forced to vacate multiple areas in the building in an ongoing attempt to eradicate the building’s illegal hotels. It was cited that both the cellar and mezzanine had been turned into makeshift hotels without natural light, ventilation, fire exits, or alarm systems. Also, in 2016 was a crackdown on issues like apartment divisions and non-permitted construction.

Prior to the discovery of the illegal hotel, also lovingly referred to as the Hipster Dorms by the owner of McKibbin Lofts, the building was presumed to owe $12,000 in outstanding fines. However, following the charges filed by the city for the illegal hotels, McKibbin Lofts owed roughly $278,400. With six violations for their indiscretions, the prices for each varied from $27,000 and $70,000.

Aside from official charges, the McKibbin Lofts are well known for their overzealous parties, thanks to the overwhelming young residents. Many of these residents are artists and those hoping to get a better start in an affordable and hip place. Newcomers, out-of-staters, and in-state fresh out of college types alike are enamored with the culture that these lofts have fostered, despite the long list of problems.

However, the buildings have changed over the years, and they’ve matured with the times and demand. The prices have surged far beyond what anyone could’ve possibly imagined ten, twenty years ago. Some spaces in the McKibbin lofts are being rented for nearly $3,700, thanks to some major overhauls. But down to the bones, the building is still the same in a sense. For example, creatives are still drawn to the space. Current residents still do what they want, but on a lesser scale than what it once was, though plenty of issues still remain. 

Most recently is an alleged rent strike and a class-action lawsuit against building management in the throes of the pandemic, according to one resident. The management company refused to renew rents and damaged credits due to late rent payments due to COVID-19 shutdowns and income reductions. The company denies participating in any retaliation for proposed resident concerns and denies any knowledge of pending class-action lawsuits.

Is there anything good about the McKibbin Lofts?

For all of that bad in the murky 2000s, there is good. Residents praise the history and industrial vibes, specifically the thanks to the building’s past as a garment factory. The two buildings sit and mirror one another, inhabiting the 248 and 255 space of McKibbin street. It’s an affordable, hip juxtaposition to the completely prim and proper whole that is Williamsburg. Perhaps most alluring about the buildings is the chance – the opportunity – to be a part of something special. It’s the idea that if you can make it here, thrive even  – you can make it anywhere.

Situated in the middle of a thick cloud of art and culture, growth, competitiveness, and everything a young creative could want in the place they hope to call home. So much so that residents lived in small, unregulated spaces just to have a taste of what made it special. It wasn’t uncommon for neighbors to be honing their craft at all hours of the night, even if it means electric guitars and horns when the sun has is down because the alternative may be soul-crushing white-collar neighbors, even roommates. And for many people, the ideology, the feeling of the space they’re in is far more important than anything that a more secure or spacious option could provide. 

The lofts act as a right of passage for hopeful creatives to grow and steady themselves, even as the building has done over the years. While not perfect, it’s the McKibbin Lofts that can be a great stopping point. The New York Times suggested that living in the McKibbin Lofts came in a set of temporary phases, different stages, similar to loving someone or even, grief. “After the honeymoon stage comes denial when, say, one gets woken up by someone’s band at 3 a.m. or mugged on one of the tough surrounding streets. Next comes anger, usually after someone hurls a 40-ounce beer bottle from the roof and then urinates outside your door. Then comes acceptance and, finally, departure.”

The Cost of Living at the McKibbin Lofts

But the last stage seems to be changing with landlords and residents attempting to convert the McKibbin Lofts into a mainstay – a home of sorts. Prices certainly reflect it these days. While multi-million-dollar properties pop up along the street and around Williamsburg and nearby Bushwick, McKibbin has slowly continued to raise its threshold. Units in 248 McKibbin have been renting for nearly $4,000 over the last year. A one-bedroom, one-bathroom unit in December for $5,500, a studio for $3,700 in November, and a loft in May for $5,499, for instance. While the steep prices make sense with completely remodeled units and in keeping up with the market, many fans of the “old” McKibbin Lofts argue that they’ve lost their charm as a whole, even if pieces remain underneath.

The buildings seem to have lost what made them unique in a sense, albeit as unsafe and alarming as that was. Strollers are pushed through the halls, neighbors complain about noise, and most struggling artists have been priced out. Moving to McKibbin these days means foregoing most of what made it unique but has introduced standards and a decent, safer way of life. Depending on what you believe in, the building has improved drastically or fallen apart completely.  

The post The Full History of the McKibbin Lofts appeared first on CitySignal.

Even Y Combinator’s Hacker News was down or slow most of the afternoon.  Engineers speculate that the Facebook outage was primarily a DNS issue, and other DNS servers such as AWS were serving as a fallback from failed requests, running more slowly.  Fortunately, most Amazon and Cloudflare hosted sites were speeding along without any problems.  You can still find buy groceries on Amazon Prime, watch the rest of Squid Game on Netflix, or search for NYC Apartments for Rent.

Monday Curse:  Stocks Down for 4th Straight Monday

If that wasn’t bad enough, Facebook is also suffering their largest 1-day loss for the year, down over 5% today at $325.  They aren’t alone – every FAANG stock is down sharply today.  However, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google are down a more modest 2% to 3%, in line with the rest of the Nasdaq.  FB is almost twice as large a move following yesterday’s somewhat scathing expose.

It’s been the same story the last few Mondays.  A relatively calm end to the week last Friday leads into an equally unexciting Sunday night with Asia markets opening.  Shortly after the 9:30am New York bell, though, a massive amount of selling begins.  Perhaps it is all tied to the China Evergrande incident, with lots of overseas capital reducing their risks.  Maybe this time the political game of chicken going on in Congress will blow up in a bad way.  Will some combination of all of these negate the accommodative Fed policies?  When was the last calm Monday in the markets?  You’d have to go back to September 6th.  Traders were all taking a break, thanks to Labor Day.

Safety in BTC, Tesla, Commodities, and Mortgage REITs

On large down move days, investors often take note of what is actually rallying.  Tesla stock is positive on the reports that they had record shipments in 2021 Q3, beating all expectations (although it had reached $806 before dropping to $780).  Crude Oil and Natural Gas also spiked to new highs for separate reasons.  OPEC+ claims they have a new era of cooperation and coordination that can help keep the market healthy (and profitable for them).  Bitcoin is rebounding today, shaking off China restriction concerns, with the anti-fiat crowd possibly preparing for a potential debt ceiling disaster.

One interestingly stable corner of the market has been mortgage REITs.  This asset class is often misunderstood despite playing an important part in the capital markets.  Almost all mortgage REITs hold mortgage-backed securities but leverage to magnify their returns and risk.  Even though treasuries bonds have had a volatile selloff in the past two weeks, the mortgage basis, the spread between mortgage rates and similar-duration treasuries, has stayed relatively stable.

Normally these are high-yielding but volatile products given the amount of leverage they take on underneath the hood.  Inflation concerns and volatility would also normally impact fixed-income or high-yield assets, but not this month.  Annaly Capital Management (NLY), AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), and iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM), are all flat since labor day, still chugging along with their promised 8%+ dividend yields.  However, these are extremely risky assets.  As with many other high-yield products, they are often the first to fall during a downturn, and one of the last assets to recover.

The post Monday Curse Continues, Facebook Outage and Stocks Down appeared first on CitySignal.

Political, Inflation and Taper Risks Still Loom

Although equity and bond traders faced a relatively calm day, VIX remains elevated at 21 mid-day on October 1st, 2021.  The NASDAQ and S&P are down over 5% from their all-time highs last month and newly released economic data is still discouraging.  Today’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report echoed what the CPI data showed the past two months:  prices are definitely rising.  Some world-famous economists such as Paul Krugman argue that the inflation numbers are simply transitory.  Meaning, as the world shifts from a pandemic to remote work to a new normal, there will be some dislocations in the economy as we adapt.

But if the inflation persists beyond acceptable levels, investors will conclude that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to begin tapering their monetary policy accommodations.  The last time this happened was known as the “taper tantrum”, and eventually a hike in the Federal Funding rate.  In December 2018, a Fed rate hike ultimately led to a 15% drop from peak to trough in the S&P 500.

Despite the volatility of the past two weeks, today’s mortgage rates and home equity loans are still only slightly higher than their historic lows from the summer.  Homeowners can still lock in rates that will not rise for the lifetime of the loan, whether it is for a new home purchase, a standard refinances, or a cashout refinance.  Those who can withstand some fluctuations in their monthly payments can opt instead for a home equity line of credit, which will be pegged to a floating rate such as 6-month LIBOR.  Shorter duration cash rates will likely lead to an overall lower monthly payment during the beginning of the loan, but will very likely track the Federal Funds rate should it rise as expected in the next 2 years.

Moves For Next Week, 10/4/2021

Traders large and small definitely feel there has been a major shift in sentiment last month.  All summer long, most small pullbacks were great buy-the-dip opportunities, allowing for quick profits immediately after any small retreat in the Nasdaq or S&P.  However, the past 3 weeks have seen the most two-sided action since March of this year.  Large multi-day drops create far more risks for leveraged investors who have become accustomed to a quick rebound.

Over in the Tastytrade world, veteran options trade Tom Sosnoff recommends taking advantage of the environment by selling option premium while keeping a slight bias towards a drop in the market.  Known to some as short-vol, short-delta, these positions profit in 3 different ways: the inherent daily time decay in options as they approach expiration, a reversion in VIX as the market calms down from the heightened fear, and a safety buffer from the short-delta bias if the market drops a mild amount.  Of course, Sosnoff warns to “stay small”, as any short-options strategy can easily become highly leveraged and costly positions should the underlying crash.

The post Huge Crypto Rally Kicks Off 2021 Q4, TikTok Embraces NFTs appeared first on CitySignal.

US Debt Ceiling Deadline Looms

Although both the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives and Senate passed the latest fiscal budget proposal, the Republican opposition unveiled one last mechanism in their toolkit:  the US debt ceiling.  Despite many procedural overhauls in our legislative branch of government, notably the loopholes around filibusters, there are still a few ways a senate minority can foil the wishes of the majority.  Raising the maximum notional value of the US National Debt is one of those crucially important topics that require 60% approval to pass.  In short, the Democrats can pass all sorts of new spending bills, but they need a few Republican votes in order to actually pay for it.

The current national debt is $28.4 trillion dollars, and so is the debt ceiling.  In theory, the US government should not borrow any more money without getting approval from Congress.   That won’t be easy, because the government issues new bonds every week, and the proceeds go to paying for lots of things, including interest on the existing $28.4 trillion!

Slightly outdated, the National Debt Clock in Midtown Manhattan now reads $28.43 trillion.

Isn’t this all just a bunch of politics?  Short answer, yes.  The government has “shut down” multiple times in the past 30 years due to the debt ceiling, and the end result is pretty minimal.  Park rangers, TSA officers, the IRS, and other federal employees ultimately get paid their promised salaries, even if some receive a temporary furlough.  Some government contracts are suspended, which can impact contractors and private firms that perform government services.  Most importantly, however, the market has rallied during all but one of the last 30 years of government shutdowns (counting the day of the shutdown to the day following a reopen).

Will a Government Shutdown Impact Rates?

Here is the slightly longer answer: each time the government reaches some sort of government shutdown, the rest of the world receives a small reminder that a US treasury bond, or any debt, is not 100% risk-free.  Does anyone really fear the United States will default on its debt in 2021?  No.  Not a chance, and even if by some miracle of politics there is a delayed or missed payment, enough people realize the stakes are massive and will make whole any debt holders.

However, the shutdown plants that tiny seed that we really don’t know what the future could hold.  Is the low interest rate policy here to stay?  Or will more members of the Federal Reserve officers resign?  Is it possible we soon replace Jerome Powell with someone a bit more hawkish?  Perhaps our government and process adds volatility and risk to the market that traders find difficult to estimate and hedge.

The post Buy the Dip Sputters Out, Debt Ceiling Game of Chicken? appeared first on CitySignal.